Are the US and Israel bluffing Iran with an attack to force changes in policy?

By Eric Puravs

Iran has been developing the ability to enrich uranium for use as fuel in nuclear power plants or for making a nuclear bomb. They are determined to keep this enrichment program. Iran suspended the enrichment program temporarily while negotiating with Britain, France, and Germany. But Iran restarted the program after they failed to make a deal that would let Iran keep the enrichment program.

In February 2006, the IAEA reported Iran to the UN Security Council. The US rejected a proposed deal that would let Iran do limited research on enrichment if it got fuel for the Bushehr reactor from Russia. The UN Security Council passed Resolution 1696 in July 2006 after much debate, giving Iran until the end of August to stop all research on enrichment.

The Europeans negotiated, while the Bush administration displayed a big stick by sending three carriers to the region. The Eisenhower was publicly sent to the Gulf in October, arriving in December. The UN passed Resolution 1737 in December 2006. The Stennis was sent in January 2007. The UN passed Resolution 1747 with tighter sanctions and the Nimitz was sent to the gulf region, both in March. Vice President Cheney made a speech promising to keep the straits of Hormuz open in May.

Israeli public opinion is worried about Iran going nuclear. Israel says Iran may have a nuclear weapon by the middle of 2009. Israeli leaders are lobbying the US and world to do something. But in the end, Israel will use force if threatened. Israel has destroyed a reactor in Iraq, and a suspected reactor in Syria. Israel Prime Minister Olmert is unpopular for the war against Hezbollah in 2006 and is under investigation for corruption. Shaul Mofaz, a former chief of staff and defense minister and possible replacement for Olmert as head of the Kadima Party, said "If Iran continues its nuclear arms program - we will attack it. The sanctions aren't effective. There will be no choice but to attack Iran to halt the Iranian nuclear program." The only question is can long range air raids completely destroy Iran's program, which is underground, and may have other hidden sites.

In Dec 2007, the US released an National Intelligence Estimate which said Iran had suspended their weapon program in 2003. This report killed most support for a possible attack on Iran, at least temporarily.

This year, the pressure on Iran is building up again. The UN passed more sanctions in Resolution 1803. Secretary of Defense Gates said a second carrier sent to the Persian Gulf in May was a "reminder" to Iran.

There is some opposition to an attack in the US. Admiral Fallon, the commander of US Central Command resigned in March 2008, after his disagreement on this issue became public. Senator Biden and Congressman Conyers have said an attack on Iran would be an impeachable offense. The December 2007 NIE says "In our judgment, only an Iranian political decision to abandon a nuclear weapons objective would plausibly keep Iran from eventually producing nuclear weaponsand such a decision is inherently reversible." and "We assess with high confidence that Iran has the scientific, technical and industrial capacity eventually to produce nuclear weapons if it decides to do so." Opponents argue that any delay caused by a raid would only be temporary, and give Iran more motivation to build a bomb.

The Bush administration won't accept anything less than Iran giving up enriching uranium. Sanctions are not showing much result, and the Bush administration is coming to an end. Bush spoke against appeasement in Israel, saying "Permitting the world's leading sponsor of terror to possess the world's deadliest weapons would be an unforgivable betrayal for future generations. For the sake of peace, the world must not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon."

The world could impose tougher sanctions, or use whatever diplomacy that will work to induce Iran to shut down the enrichment program. This might include guaranteed fuel for Iran from Russia and/or China, along with a mutual defense treaty and oil deals. If the program is not shut down by late fall, President Bush will have to decide to attack, or go against his past public statements and give the new President more time to try diplomacy. Israel will almost certainly attack if the program hasn't been stopped by summer 2009, to at least destroy the known enrichment facility. I think Israel and the US would prefer for diplomacy to work, but if it does not work soon, their reasoning will demand an attack.

Name: jean
E-mail: Private
Date posted: November 20, 2008 - 02:22 pm
Message: no human here on earth is going to be the antichrist, Satan is going to be the antichrist, he's not going to let anyone else be the antichrist, he holds that title, he has waited a long time to play this part, he is not going to possess a human man and portray the antichrist through that man on earth! read thess. 2, v.-3, where Jesus states let no man decieve you, then read rev.12, v.9- stating the devil was cast out of heaven to the earth who decieves the whole world! also read Ezk. 28, v.2-19, where satan proclaims to be God and he sits in the seat of God ! the antichrist can also be identified through the 666 numbers, he comes at the 6th seal, the 6th trump and the 6th vial! thus being revealed as 666! read it for yourselves! Antichrist is non other than Satan himself!!!! He is also the false prophet! Satan has many titles, just as God has many titles!

Name: Josh
E-mail:
Date posted: June 20, 2008 - 02:36 pm
Message: Interesting article indeed!

Name: Richard H Perry
E-mail: lastdaysmystery@yahoo.com
Date posted: June 18, 2008 - 02:25 pm
Message: There is another option. Bush could impose a Navel Blockade of Iran with the US Fleet.

However, with the agressive posture of Iran, this could prove to be very dangerous. Iranian Anti-Ship capabilities coupled with the confined space in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, the US Fleet could become sitting ducks.

I am also mindful of the Bible Prophecy of Revelation 6:4 which to me indicates that a Middle Eastern leader (rider on the red horse) will take peace from the earth. He will be given a large weapon or Battle. Persian Gulf? World War? 2008?

For more on this see my YouTube library: richardperry2